MARKET INSIGHTS_01072024
01/07/2024
SUMMARY OF KEY POINTS IN THE REPORT
After breaking down to a low of 1,250 points, the VN-Index has rebounded to this support zone. Basically, this is also a good trading signal. Supply has also exhausted, and there is no sell-off, which is also a positive technical signal. However, it is still too early to determine if the VN-Index has successfully bottomed out. Bottoming is a process, not a single trading session. Furthermore, the downtrend often exhibits an ABC pattern, meaning we might start to see a B-wave rebound with resistance around 1,280 points.
The medium-term price action pattern is also negative, specifically a Bearish Bat pattern. The last time this pattern appeared, the VN-Index dropped 200 points. Therefore, we still maintain caution. The VN-Index is likely entering a seasonal correction phase. Regarding cash flow, some short-term bright spots include the VINCOM group, which is pausing its decline and not setting new lows. Additionally, the market is still trying to rotate and push up some sectors, such as the banking group today. We believe that observing the banking, securities, steel, and real estate groups at this time is quite important because if these groups recover, it will create a spillover effect and attract cash flow back, allowing for confidence in new buy transactions.
According to the "Price Action" analysis method for VN30, we have 04 codes giving buy signals, 01 code giving a sell signal, and 25 codes giving neutral signals. MWG, MSN, GVR, HDB... are showing positive signals.
According to quantitative statistics, with today's pattern, in the next trading session, the VN-Index has a 56% probability of declining and a 46.53% probability of the closing price being higher than the opening price. Based on statistics, the index traded down with the closing price lower than the opening price on Tuesday's trading session. Support is at 1,190 - 1,200 points, and resistance is at 1,280 points.
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