MARKET INSIGHTS_29012024

MARKET PULSE
VN-Index closed the trading session forming a "Small Black Candle" trading pattern. Trading volume increased but remained below the 20-day average. Theoretically, increasing price with increasing trading volume is a bullish pattern supported by volume, but in reality, today's market breadth leaned towards a downtrend. Key points to note:
(i) The market is entering a typical Lunar New Year trading cycle with selling pressure often appearing in the week before the holiday and liquidity tending to narrow.
(ii) Although market breadth decreased, the number of rising sectors was higher with many stocks showing rotational gains. We see capital flowing into sectors showing good recovery signs in January from Top-Down analysis such as textiles, industrial park leasing (registered FDI and disbursements continue to increase), transportation (freight rates increasing), or stocks with good business results (HHS, TCH...).
(iii) Foreign investors have started to stop net buying, but the net buying volume is concentrated in banking and steel stocks (This is likely a portfolio restructuring activity by foreign investors).
(iv) The negative news at this time is that the exchange rate is rapidly increasing and has touched the 25,000 VND mark. However, as we shared, this is a negative factor, but if this factor does not change monetary policy, then it is not a factor that will reduce the stock market's upward momentum. Of course, we still need to continue monitoring the State Bank of Vietnam's policy moves to identify any policy changes, if any.
According to the "Price Action" analysis method for VN30, we have 05 codes giving buy signals, 10 codes giving sell signals, and 15 codes giving sideways signals. CTG, BCM, VJC, GVR, HDB... show positive signals.
According to quantitative statistics, with today's pattern, in the next trading session, VN-Index has a 51% probability of increasing and a 58.33% probability of the closing price being higher than the opening price. Based on statistics, the index traded up with the closing price higher than the opening price in Tuesday's trading session.
Resistance is 1,210 points. Support is 1,160 points.
Intraday Stock Support and Resistance (EOD)
Stocks with unusual trading volume during the day
Watchlist for tomorrow
Intraday Chart:
* Overview of Vietnam's economic picture in January 2024;
* China's holdings of US Treasury bonds continue to decline in a straight line;
US Stock Market: Tonight's forecast is for indices to trade indecisively and potentially close slightly lower.
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