MARKET INSIGHTS_15072024

SUMMARY OF SOME KEY POINTS IN THE REPORT
Foreign investors net sold over 1,942 billion VND. The top net buying codes by foreign investors via order matching included: TNH, NLG, PC1, PLX, BCM, TIG, HHS, CSV, APH, DIG... The top net selling codes by foreign investors via order matching included: HDB, STB, ACV, SAB, SCS, VCB, MSN, BID, DGC, HPG... According to our research, the sellers could be Thai funds. Currently, the selling party could be InnovestX, a subsidiary of Siam Commercial Bank Thailand. From January 1, 2024, new regulations allow Thai authorities to tax foreign income of individuals if they are Thai residents for a maximum of 180 days/year and earn foreign income from work or assets in the specific assessment year. Therefore, it seems that investors in Thailand are looking for a new investment method to circumvent this law, and we will likely see more agreements continue to emerge.
The band is narrowing with support at 1,240 points and resistance at 1,300 points. The VN-Index needs to break out of this price range to determine its upward or downward trend. Typically, after the band narrows, the market will experience strong fluctuations. With the market identified as Sideway, technical analysis suggests staying out and waiting for a Breakout or Breakdown point to trade, or trading within the range by buying at the lower bound and selling at the upper bound. In principle, the trading volume should also be narrowed.
The market still shows divergence, but cash flow is only pushing a small group of stocks. Currently, healthcare stocks are being pushed up with information about capital increase issuance and a trend of selecting stocks with similar information like TDC, BCM, indicating that the investment trend in capital increase issuance stock groups is popular (perhaps looking at the cases of NTL, CSV which had high profitability when issuing capital increases). Of course, cyclically, the price increase of the healthcare group is not a positive signal for the market because it is inherently a defensive sector.
According to quantitative statistics, with today's pattern, in the next trading session, the VN-Index has a 50% probability of increasing and a 41.66% probability of the closing price being higher than the opening price. Based on statistics, the index traded with an unclear increase or decrease, with the closing price lower than the opening price in Tuesday's trading session. Support is at 1,240 points and resistance is at 1,300 points.
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