MARKET INSIGHTS_07102025

Summary of Key Points in the Report

The VN-Index closed the session forming a “Black Opening Marubozu” pattern. Trading volume declined and fell below the 20-day average. Theoretically, a price drop accompanied by lower trading volume does not indicate a strong bearish pattern supported by volume – hence, the signal is not overly negative.

Key highlights:

(i) Foreign investors recorded a net sell of more than VND 1,376 billion (across all three exchanges).
Top net buy tickers included: HPG, GEX, FPT, ACB, NLG, FRT, CTS, VCB, HDB, DXG…
Top net sell tickers included: STB, VRE, SHB, SSI, VHM, VPB, MBB, MSN, VCI, VIC…
The foreign selling streak shows no signs of stopping. One possible reason for this trend could be the exchange rate pressure. The depreciation of the VND can become a self-reinforcing loop if investors lose confidence in the regulator’s ability to stabilize the currency.

In the stock market, some foreign investors may have accelerated their capital withdrawal plans through forex transactions, increasing demand for USD and putting more pressure on VND depreciation. As banks sell USD (both spot and forward), this impacts the balance of the market. The more concentrated the demand, the higher the pressure. In reality, forward demand has surged, and the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has attempted to stabilize through forward supply — but this remains insufficient and requires more comprehensive measures. Some banks have even taken advantage of the situation to profit from arbitrage opportunities.

(ii) The VN-Index continues to form a pennant pattern, typically seen in major uptrend waves. After yesterday’s strong rally, the market cooled off, awaiting FTSE reclassification news. The index is likely to move sideways or slightly correct within a narrow range, absorbing short-term profit-taking pressure. It is consolidating its base around the 1,680-point level and maintaining positive sentiment ahead of the October 8 event.
Under this scenario, the index needs to close above the MA(10). Investors should wait for confirmation signals and trend validation in tomorrow’s session.

Stocks showing accumulation signals today: MCH, PNJ, CTI, VPL, EVG, KOS…
Stocks with strong inflows: FRT, MST, CTD, VPL…

According to Price Action analysis within the VN30 basket:

• 03 stocks show buy signals
• 05 stocks show sell signals
• 22 stocks show sideways signals
  Notably, VHM, MBB, VIC… exhibit positive momentum.

Based on quantitative statistics, with today’s pattern, the VN-Index has:

• A 46.56% probability of rising in the next session
• A 40.29% probability that the closing price will be higher than the opening price

According to historical data, the index is expected to decline, with the closing price lower than the opening price in Wednesday’s trading session.
Support: 1,670 points
Resistance: 1,711 points

📎 Investors can download the full report via the following link: