MARKET INSIGHTS_07032024
07/03/2024
SUMMARY OF SOME KEY POINTS IN THE REPORT
Negative divergence between price and RSI(14) is currently hindering the short-term uptrend.
In the current context, high profit-taking demand will create downward pressure for correction, but considering the current situation, we believe that relying solely on technical indicators to sell is not necessarily the correct approach (Of course, this is a general perspective; depending on the specific stock, we should still use technical indicators for buying and selling). The main reason is that this could be an uptrend cycle, as mentioned in the business cycle report we sent on November 2, 2023, last year, where the characteristic of this cycle is that the price increase will last for at least 6 months, and in some cases, the uptrend can extend up to 5 years.
In terms of valuation, the market is not overly expensive, even though a few individual stocks appear to be exceeding their intrinsic valuation. However, even for the banking sector, the valuation is still far from historical high valuation levels. Furthermore, expectations of a recovery in 2024 and especially 2025 could push the market to higher valuation levels, similar to what we observed during the Covid-19 period.
The current support level for the index is 1,220, which is the resistance line connecting the peaks of August 2022 and September 2023, and saw a breakout on February 28, 2024. This level will now become a support area according to the PullBack Retest model. In the short term, if it does not surpass 1,300 points, any corrective pressure, if present, will only last for 1-2 trading sessions.
According to quantitative statistics, with today's pattern, in the next trading session, the VN-Index has a 51% probability of increasing and a 40% probability of the closing price being higher than the opening price. Based on statistics, the index will increase with a closing price lower than the opening price in Friday's trading session. Resistance is 1,300 points. Support is 1,220 points.
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