MARKET INSIGHTS_06102025

Summary of Key Points in the Report

The VN-Index closed the session forming a “White Closing Marubozu” pattern. Trading volume increased and returned to the 20-day average level. Theoretically, a price increase accompanied by higher volume indicates a bullish pattern supported by volume – a positive signal.

Key highlights:

(i) Foreign investors recorded a net sell of more than VND 1,688 billion (across all three exchanges).
Top net buy tickers included: HPG, VIX, ACB, GEX, BSR, PDR, HDG, NVL, DPG, GVR…
Top net sell tickers included: MWG, MBB, STB, VRE, HDB, VHM, TCB, CII, SHB, FPT…

It is quite difficult to fully explain the reason behind the strong net selling by foreign investors, as this behavior is influenced by complex and multi-layered factors. Depending on each period, specific reasons may dominate — for instance:

• The capital withdrawal from structured investment products (e.g., SK-style deals reaching maturity, local firms failing to meet KPIs, or hybrid deals structured as debt nearing expiration)
• Currency risks, as concerns about VND depreciation persist. High USD interest rates combined with FX hedging costs and transaction-related taxes/fees make investing in Vietnam less attractive — investors typically require at least a 10% expected return to justify exposure.
• This capital outflow trend is not unique to Vietnam; however, Vietnam has seen stronger net selling compared to other Southeast Asian markets.

(ii) The VN-Index continues to form a pennant pattern, a structure often seen during major upward waves.
Today’s session showed a breakout accompanied by increased trading volume and broad-based price gains, resembling a follow-through day – a positive signal consistent with the expected 5–8 week reaccumulation phase.

At this stage, there are two possible scenarios for adding positions:
(a) The VN-Index closes decisively above 1,711 points with rising liquidity, confirming a new strong bullish phase.
(b) The market cools down after today’s strong rally, awaiting FTSE-related news. In this case, the index is likely to consolidate sideways or slightly correct within a narrow range, absorbing short-term profit-taking pressure. The support base remains around 1,680 points, maintaining a positive sentiment ahead of the October 8 event. Under this scenario, the index must close above the MA(10).

Stocks showing accumulation signals today: AGR, VGS, OCB, HCM, BID, DPG…
Stocks with strong inflows: MST, DCL, VRE…

According to the Price Action analysis within the VN30 basket:

• 07 stocks show buy signals
• 01 stock shows a sell signal
• 22 stocks show sideways signals
  Notably, VRE, VHM, TCB, STB, SHB, VIC… exhibit positive momentum.

Based on quantitative statistics, with today’s pattern, the VN-Index has:

• A 51% probability of rising in the next session
• A 40.28% probability that the closing price will be higher than the opening price

According to historical patterns, the index is expected to increase, with the closing price higher than the opening price in Tuesday’s trading session.
Support: 1,670 points
Resistance: 1,711 points

📎 Investors can download the full report via the following link