MARKET INSIGHTS_03092025

Summary of Key Points in the Report

The VN-Index closed the session forming a “White Candle” pattern. Trading volume increased, though it remained below the 20-day average. Theoretically, a price increase accompanied by higher trading volume represents a bullish pattern supported by volume – a positive signal.

Key highlights:

(i) Foreign investors recorded a net sell of more than VND 862 billion (across all three exchanges).
Top net buy tickers included: HPG, MSB, FPT, NKG, HSG, DIG, HCM, MBS, VPI, SAB…
Top net sell tickers included: VPB, VHM, MSN, MWG, GEX, DXG, VSC, CTG, TPB, VIC…
The foreign selling trend continues without clear signs of reversal in the Vietnamese stock market. This year, Indonesia has become a more favored destination for foreign capital inflows compared to Vietnam.

(ii) The VN-Index closed higher today despite lower-than-average liquidity. We believe that after a period of high trading activity, the market is now trading more cautiously following the holiday. Many investors who sold before the holidays may stay on the sidelines for now.

We also believe that the >5% correction phase of the VN-Index may have ended, and the index might not need to retest the 1,600-point bottom in the near term, given the strong sector rotation currently taking place.

From a historical perspective, Vietnam’s stock market appears to mirror China’s market behavior in 2014–2015 — both in terms of macroeconomic policy direction and the government’s ambition to promote “Make by Vietnam” enterprises. If this pattern holds, the VN-Index could move toward a valuation of P/E = 25 in the medium term.

Stocks with strong inflows today: TLG, TCH…
Stocks showing accumulation signals: VGT, TLG, VHC, TNG, PAC, VGI, PVT, PNJ, DPG…

According to the Price Action method for the VN30 basket:

• 08 stocks show buy signals,
• 08 stocks show sell signals, and
• 14 stocks are sideways.
  Notably, VPB, VNM, STB, HPG, HDB, VIB, TPB, MWG… show positive momentum.

Based on quantitative statistics, with today’s pattern, the VN-Index has:

• A 50% probability of declining in the next session, and
• A 33% probability that the closing price will be higher than the opening price.

According to the data, the index is likely to trade sideways, with the closing price slightly lower than the opening price in Friday’s trading session.
Support: 1,600 points
Resistance: 1,700 points

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