MARKET INSIGHTS_02012024

MARKET PULSE
The VN-Index closed trading forming a "Black Candle" trading pattern. Trading volume increased and was above the 20-day average. A price increase with increased trading volume is a bullish pattern supported by volume, but considering market breadth, today was a negative trading day, not a positive one. Key points to note: (i) The VN-Index has been moving in the medium term according to the Three Rising Valleys (3RV) pattern since November 1, 2023. The resistance of this pattern is 1,134 points, and if there is a breakout from resistance, the next price target is 1,245 points. The 1,042-point mark will be the area confirming the continued existence of the pattern. (ii) During the day, the index at one point surpassed the 1,134-point resistance level, but the closing price failed to break above resistance. (iii) Foreign investors returned to a net selling trend, mainly due to agreements related to the financial fund certificates of SSI fund management company. It seems that capital is tending to leave the stock market sector at this time. We note that the stock market sector is still at a high valuation level, and this is generally not an ideal investment price range at this time. (v) The story of government inspection pointing out violations in the electricity sector and the Ministry of Industry and Trade heated up the market today. Our view on this event is as follows: (a) The transfer of violations to the police agency will mainly affect officials who are prosecuted. (b) Some projects may have to retroactively adjust profits or affect the corporate financial plan because the new electricity purchase price could be 16-50% lower than the current calculated selling price. (c) For some projects that businesses have sold to foreign partners and recorded profits, the state may need to have a plan to harmonize interests because foreign partners, when purchasing electricity projects, have priced them based on signed contracts. According to quantitative statistics, with today's pattern, in the next trading session, the VN-Index has a 50% probability of declining and a 62.5% probability of the closing price being higher than the opening price. Based on statistics, the index traded with no clear upward or downward trend, with the closing price higher than the opening price in Thursday's trading session. Resistance is 1,134 points. Support is 1,080 points. Intraday Stock Support and Resistance (EOD) Stocks with a sudden surge in trading volume today Watchlist of stocks for tomorrow Intraday Charts: * US GDP growth from 2007 to present; * Global stock market overview in 2023; US Stock Market: Indices are forecast to correct downwards tonight. Investors can download the full report via the following link: