BUY RECOMMENDATION ON HDC – CATALYST FROM PROVINCIAL MERGER
28/10/2025
We initiate a BUY recommendation for HDC with the following investment highlights:
– Key drivers in 2025 include the divestment of the Dai Duong (Antares) project and the planned handovers at The Light City and Ngoc Tuoc 2.
For The Light City, the resumption of sales in 2025 is expected to not only boost revenue and generate short-term cash flow but also lay the foundation for growth in the 2025–2026 period—especially as the real estate market shows signs of recovery.
– Following the proposed merger of Vung Tau into Ho Chi Minh City, we believe this will serve as a significant catalyst for the real estate sector.
The Light City stands to benefit from land price appreciation thanks to regional connectivity, increased capital inflows, and population shifts from Ho Chi Minh City. With synchronized planning and infrastructure, the project holds strong mid-to-long-term price growth potential.
– The divestment of HDC’s stake in the Dai Duong Vung Tau Tourism Project could be considered a strategic breakthrough in 2025, offering the following advantages:
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Improved profit margins from one-off gains;
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Strengthened cash flow to support debt repayment and reduce financial pressure;
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A significant contribution to meeting HDC’s profit target for the year.
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