MARKET INSIGHTS_25082025

SUMMARY OF KEY POINTS IN THE REPORT

The VN-Index closed the trading session forming a “Long Black Candle” pattern.
Trading volume declined and fell below the 20-day average. Theoretically, a decrease in price accompanied by a decrease in volume is not a bullish pattern supported by volume – this is not a highly negative signal.

Key highlights:

(i) Foreign investors recorded a net sell of over VND 1,781 billion (across all three exchanges).
Top net buy stocks included: MBB, SSI, SHB, DXG, GEX, HAG, VND, BSR, KDH, MSN, etc.
Top net sell stocks included: HPG, VPB, STB, VHM, FPT, CTG, VIX, VCB, HHV, CII, etc.
Proprietary trading desks continued to be the main net buyers, counterbalancing the selling pressure from foreign investors.

(ii) The VN-Index continued to decline for the second consecutive session with a long candle body — the index has now corrected by around 5%, which we view as part of a cyclical correction.
We previously noted that in late August to early September, the market could experience a correction of over 5%, and investors should maintain a certain level of cash to hedge against this move.

Today marks the second consecutive decline for the banking sector (the key driver of the market’s rise from 1,600 to 1,700 points).
Additionally, previously overheated stocks related to the GEX ecosystem are also showing signs of strong correction — this is a normal occurrence after a sharp rally (doubling in price recently).

A positive note is that some stocks which had fallen 15–20% earlier are now stabilizing around key moving average support levels (MA50, MA20) such as VCG, VNM, HPG, ANV, etc.
Moreover, capital rotation has shifted toward mid- and small-cap stocks, as seen with HAG reaching new highs.
Overall, the current correction is necessary and healthy for the market.

Stocks attracting strong inflows today: DGT, NAF, HAG, HVH.
Stocks suitable for accumulation today: VEA, PPC.

According to Price Action analysis on VN30, there are:

• 03 stocks giving buy signals,
• 16 stocks giving sell signals,
• 11 stocks moving sideways.
  Notably, VIC, BID, VHM show positive signals.

Quantitative analysis indicates that with today’s candlestick pattern:

• The probability of a decline in the next session is 52%,
• While 61.53% of cases show a close higher than open.
  Based on statistics, the VN-Index is likely to decline, but with a higher close than open on the Tuesday session.
  Support level: 1,550 points.
  Medium-term resistance: 1,700 points.
  

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