MARKET INSIGHTS_1412022

MARKET PULSE

The VN-Index closed the trading session forming a “White Candle” pattern. Trading volume decreased and was lower than the 20-day average. Technically, decreasing price with increasing volume and increasing price with decreasing volume suggest a “Bull Trap” pattern for the index.

Key points to note: (i) RSI(14) is showing a Failure Swing pattern. The market had a balancing reaction today. This somewhat indicates that the support area has had some effect. However, fundamentally, this is still an uncertain and unsafe trading state. (ii) The VN-Index held firm at the dynamic MA(50) support, which is a bright spot for the market, but we note that the trading pattern in July 2020 also had similar points, and at that time the index also faced unexpected strong selling pressure, causing many investors to shift from hope to disappointment. Therefore, rushing to buy at the bottom now is not necessary; further observation is advised. The bottom is always a process. (iii) The market needs groups like banking, oil and gas, public investment, or real estate to rise despite challenges to show that the risk rotation continues. At that point, overall risk will decrease. Perhaps 2-3 more trading sessions are needed to confirm whether this trend will materialize.

According to quantitative statistics, with today’s pattern, in the next trading session, the VN-Index has a 49% probability of increasing and a 37.5% probability of the closing price being higher than the opening price. Statistics show that the market will decline on the first day of the week. If the market declines, investors should reduce their stock holdings. If the market increases, further observation is advised before intending to buy. For speculative stocks, it is advisable to exit the holding position.

Stock Support and Resistance for the Day (EOD)

Stocks with Abnormal Trading Volume for the Day

Watchlist of Stocks for Tomorrow

Intraday Charts:

• Outlook for the US Stock Market;
• FED, interest rates, recession, and inflation;

US Stock Market: Stocks declined in most sectors, although the consumer goods sector saw many stocks rise. Stocks like Costco could benefit from the effects of inflation in the coming months. The main index is forecast to recover tonight after the recent series of declines.

Investors can download the full report via the following link:

---