MARKET INSIGHTS_12112024

SUMMARY OF KEY POINTS IN THE REPORT

Foreign investors net sold over 631 billion VND (including all 3 exchanges). The top net buying foreign orders included codes: STB, SAB, HPG, BAF, CTD, DXG, DBC, HAH, VTP, DGC… The top net selling foreign orders included codes: TCB, PVD, VHM, MSN, FPT, BID, VNM, VIC, VPB, MWG… Currently, the US stock market is trending upwards faster, and US government bond yields are also high, which could be the main reason why foreign capital is leaving the Vietnamese stock market.

VN-Index moved around MA(200). The lower band has not opened to support a price decline, indicating that the possibility of sideways movement in this price range still exists. Overall, despite significant negative pressure on the first day of the week, the market did not break the 1,240-point support level. We will continue to monitor this support level in tomorrow’s trading session.

There has been a positive change in the past week, as we have seen many stocks hit the ceiling and a continuous upward trend creating positive returns has become increasingly common. For example, the breakout of the shipping group today was very good, and demand hardly decreased even when the VN-Index fell sharply. Additionally, the rise of small and mid-cap stocks like CSM, CTD, even when the VN-Index was quite negative, indicates that the market is starting to increase risk rotation. This is a good sign… However, many stocks still follow the T+2.5 profit, T+6 break-even, and T+15 loss pattern. Furthermore, selling pressure likely comes from the VN30 group, with foreign investors increasing net selling. This could push the index down further.

According to the “Price Action” analysis method for VN30, we have 04 codes showing buy signals, 01 code showing a sell signal, and 25 codes showing sideways movement. SAB, BCM, FPT… show positive signals.

According to quantitative statistics, with today’s pattern, in the next trading session, the VN-Index has a 50% probability of increasing and a 16.67% probability of the closing price being higher than the opening price. Based on statistics, the index’s movement (up or down) is unclear with the closing price lower than the opening price on Wednesday’s trading session. Support is 1,240 points and resistance is 1,270 points.

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