[Market News 27/10/2023] THE STORY OF LIQUIDITY CRISIS LIKE 2022 REPEATS

Some important notes:

– Currently, the VHM story is dominating the market. This event is a black swan event. It is repeating a similar scenario to the period from November 3, 2022, to November 16, 2022, when the Van Thinh Phat deal led to a bond crisis and 3 stocks, NVL, PDR, HPX, were forced to sell hundreds of millions of shares right at the beginning of the ATO session, causing severe psychological impact on the market and triggering a sell-off, including technical margin calls. Foreign investors placing sell orders for up to 30 million VHM shares in the ATO session also created a similar negative effect, with the entire VIC, VRE, VHM group experiencing price declines. However, we assess that this event will have less impact compared to last year. Last year, we had 9 declining sessions with a total of 140 points before the market bottomed out, so this year, the extent of the decline and the number of affected sessions may be less.

– To find the trading bottom, investors need to observe the absorption capacity of VHM, VIC, and VRE’s sell volume. Within this group, VIC and VRE might hope to stop hitting the floor price sooner, while VHM may need to be ready to absorb sell volumes of 100 – 200 million shares. Therefore, VHM’s price discount could be greater, and an unexpected rate of VHM’s price decline cannot be ruled out.

– Investors should switch to a ready-to-trade state. One of the first groups likely to recover could be the banking sector. Last year, CTG was the leading stock in the banking group’s increase (Currently, CTG’s P/B valuation is 1.2, similar to last year’s valuation range. Additionally, last year, the earliest rising stocks were small-cap stocks and those whose prices reached a dividend yield higher than savings interest rates (GIL quickly hit the ceiling and BSR bottomed out the most), subsequently leading the entire market to gain points.

– Index forecast for October 27, 2023: Statistics show that the index will adjust downwards.

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SOURCE: AAS RESEARCH

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