MARKET INSIGHTS_07032024

SUMMARY OF KEY POINTS IN THE REPORT

Negative divergence between price and RSI(14) is currently hindering the short-term uptrend. In the current context, increased profit-taking demand will put downward pressure, but considering the current situation, we believe that relying solely on technical indicators for selling is not necessarily the correct approach (Of course, this is a general perspective; for specific stocks, technical indicators should still be used for buying and selling). The main reason is that this could be an uptrend cycle, as outlined in the business cycle report we sent on November 2, 2023, last year, where this cycle is characterized by a price increase lasting at least 6 months, and in some cases, extending up to 5 years.

In terms of valuation, the market is not overly expensive, although a few individual stocks appear to be exceeding their intrinsic valuation. However, even for the banking sector, valuations are still far from historical highs. Furthermore, expectations of a recovery in 2024 and especially 2025 could push the market to higher valuation levels, similar to what we observed during the Covid-19 period.

The current support level for the index is 1,220, which is the resistance line connecting the peaks of August 2022 and September 2023, and saw a breakout on February 28, 2024. This level will now become a support area according to the PullBack Retest model. In the short term, if the index does not surpass 1,300 points, any potential correction pressure would only last for 1-2 trading sessions.

According to quantitative statistics, with today’s pattern, in the next trading session, the VN-Index has a 51% probability of increasing and a 40% probability of the closing price being higher than the opening price. Based on statistics, the index is expected to increase with the closing price lower than the opening price on Friday’s trading session. Resistance is 1,300 points. Support is 1,220 points.

Investors can download the full report via the following link:

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