MARKET INSIGHTS_07062024

The current trading seems similar to the VN-Index’s 1,130 region in December 2023, when the index struggled to break resistance and trading volume narrowed. Selling pressure was not too strong on the downside, and when the market broke resistance, liquidity began to increase. Do we still expect history to repeat itself?

From a medium-term perspective, the VN-Index has been moving in an inverse head and shoulders pattern since March, with the neckline confirmed at 1,292 points. A breakout would push the index towards the 1,400-point price range.

Today’s cash flow focused on banking and steel stocks. We see that in the context where the index is struggling and often experiences strong selling pressure in the afternoon, the fact that leading groups like banking and steel hold firm and still close near their highest prices of the day is a positive sign. If this trend continues, the outlook for a breakout remains positive.

It’s too early to conclude, but current trading seems to be repeating the pattern at the 1,250-point mark, and we will likely see a breakout in the next 2-3 sessions. Of course, as we have shared before, resistance remains resistance until it is broken, so despite positive thoughts, we should still trade cautiously.

According to the “Price Action” analysis method for VN30, we have 10 codes signaling buy, 08 codes signaling sell, and 12 codes signaling sideways movement. SAB, BCM, BID, TCB… show positive signals.

According to quantitative statistics, with today’s pattern, in the next trading session, the VN-Index has a 51% probability of increasing and a 45.45% probability of closing higher than the opening price. Based on statistics, the index traded up with a closing price lower than the opening price on Monday’s trading session. Support is at 1,250 points and resistance is at 1,300 points.