MARKET INSIGHTS_25062024

After establishing a Break out and surpassing the 1,300 resistance without significant volume, the VN-Index turned downwards again. This signal cannot be considered positive as it creates the risk that breaking above 1,300 points could be a Failure Break out. Therefore, we need the index to maintain the 1,250-point support zone to avoid falling into a double-top pattern. It is crucial that the downtrend does not see periods of high-volume selling. Currently, the market is testing this important support level. We need to observe cautiously because if selling volume continues to increase and the market breaks below its bottom, it could create a spiral of risk.

The medium-term movement pattern is also negative, specifically the Bearish Bat pattern. The last time this pattern appeared, the VN-Index dropped 200 points. Therefore, we want to observe for about 1 week to see if the VN-Index’s ability to form a bottom is successful or if we are entering a seasonal correction. Some bright spots today include VCB’s recovery at the support level, as well as the good price reactions of the steel and shipping groups, which are expected to have positive business prospects in the coming quarters. Additionally, the halt in the decline of the securities and real estate sectors also provides positive psychological support for investors.
According to the “Price Action” analysis method for VN30, we have 02 codes giving buy signals, 06 codes giving sell signals, and 22 codes giving sideways signals. TCB, GVR… show positive signals.

According to quantitative statistics, with today’s pattern, in the next trading session, the VN-Index has a 57% probability of declining and a 36.8% probability of the closing price being higher than the opening price. Based on statistics, the index traded down with the closing price lower than the opening price on Wednesday’s trading session. Support is 1,240 – 1,250 points and resistance is 1,280 points.